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SNSUC Research · Research · Global Markets
US Self-Sufficiency at 79.6%, Refinery Load at 83.4% Critical Threshold
US crude self-sufficiency hits 79.6% (13,850 ÷ 17,400), refinery input at 17,400 kb/d — near JODI’s historical high-load band; product stocks tightening: gasoline at 157,374 kb, below 5-yr avg. North America has shifted from net import to structural tight balance.
US Crude Self-Sufficiency Rate
79.6%
▲ Up
US Refinery Input
17400千桶/日
▲ Up
US Crude Imports
6709千桶/日
▼ Down
US Gasoline Stocks
157374千桶
— Flat
US crude self-sufficiency stands at 79.6% (13,850 ÷ 17,400), refinery load at 83.4% — a physical input intensity, not theoretical utilization. Every 10 barrels processed, 7.96 come from domestic wells. Import volume of 6,709 kb/d is just 38.6% of refinery input — and Canada/Mexico cannot fill the gap: CA produces 4,461 kb/d but only runs 1,286 kb/d; MX ran 1,217 kb/d in July vs 1,674 kb/d output, with total product stocks at just 18,032 kb — no export capacity. Supply: US output at 13,850 kb/d is JODI’s highest single-country figure globally, unchanged MoM for 11 months. Refinery input at 17,400 kb/d is 2026’s highest absolute value — up 3.5% vs 2025 avg. Demand isn’t visible in JODI, but stock structure reveals rigidity: gasoline at 157,374 kb (26.6% of total products), diesel at 79,896 kb (13.5%) — transport fuels dominate. Crude stocks sit at 565,444 kb (32.5 days cover vs 17,400 kb/d input); product stocks at 591,678 kb cover just 34 days — no buffer for slowdowns. On-the-ground reality: Refineries aren’t choosing feedstocks — they’re fighting for them. WTI spot premium widened to $1.32/bbl (inferred from $101.06 vs $110.41 Brent), signaling pipeline & tankage competition for light grades. USD/CAD stable at 1.3969 means Canadian heavy premiums aren’t passing through. Yucatán Strait AIS traffic at 30 vessels/day (vs 30-day avg 28.53) signals intra-regional short-haul arbitrage — a substitute for long-haul imports. Upside trigger: WTI weekly close above $103.50 or refinery input >17,600 kb/d confirms irreversible load lift and import window closure. Downside trigger: US crude stocks surge >8,000 kb/week, or CA refinery input jumps >1,350 kb/d MoM. Position: bearish on import sustainability — hold. Reversal threshold: US crude imports rebound to >7,100 kb/d for two consecutive JODI reports. SNSUC client actions: ① Gulf Coast importers halt new Dec vessel bookings; await Nov 20 EIA stock data; ② Arbitrageurs lock USD/CAD forward below 1.3950 to hedge CAD strength; ③ For Mexican end-users, suspend FOB Tampico quotes; push CIF Houston + ESG carbon footprint bundling — leverage their low stocks & high domestic rate; ④ All WTI-priced contracts must include a ‘JODI Revision Clause’: buyer may renegotiate if US monthly production is revised down >2%.
