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SNSUC Research · Research · Global Markets
US Self-Sufficiency Rises to 79.6%; Refinery Throughput Near Capacity Ceiling
US crude self-sufficiency (production/refinery input) hits 79.6% — highest in 2026; Canada’s net export capacity strengthens; Mexico’s refinery utilization stands at 58.1%. North America’s crude balance is shifting structurally from import dependence to domestic supply dominance, exerting downward pressure on Asian arbitrage pricing power.
US Crude Self-Sufficiency
79.6%
▲ Up
US Refinery Input
17400千桶/日
— Flat
Canada Net Export Capacity
3175千桶/日
▲ Up
Mexico Refinery Utilization
58.1%
▼ Down
US crude self-sufficiency rises to 79.6%; refinery throughput nears capacity ceiling. JODI data for US (Aug 2026): domestic production 13,850 kb/d, refinery input 17,400 kb/d — ratio = 79.6%, highest in 2026 (78.2% in July, 77.1% in June). This means: 8 of every 10 barrels fed into US refineries now come from domestic wells; imported crude share has compressed to 20.4% (6,709/17,400), below 2025 average of 23.1% (industry benchmark). Canada: production 4,461 kb/d, refinery input 1,286 kb/d, net export capacity = 3,175 kb/d; end-month inventory = 55,636 kb — equivalent to just 43 days of static consumption, far below US’s 116 days, signaling high export readiness. Mexico: refinery input 1,217 kb/d, production 1,674 kb/d; no import or inventory reported — JODI shows ‘surplus’, but actual refinery utilization is only 58.1% (based on Pemex’s nameplate capacity of 2,090 kb/d), confirming weak local absorption. North America focus: US Gulf Coast refineries have zero margin for throughput adjustment. 17,400 kb/d is just 20 kb/d below the 2025 peak (17,420 kb/d); gasoline + diesel + jet fuel inventories total 270,146 kb (157,374 + 79,896 + 32,876), up 12.3% vs 2025 lows (industry benchmark) — tankage is tight. If WTI holds above $105.50 for 3 days and Henry Hub falls below $3.00/MMBtu, crack spreads narrow and force refinery cuts — but there’s no room left. For SNSUC clients, this locks in rigid supply timing for USGC fuel oil and asphalt, shrinking landed price negotiation leverage. Upside trigger: WTI closes ≥ $105.50 for 3 consecutive days AND Henry Hub < $3.00/MMBtu. Downside trigger: US refinery input drops >150 kb/d MoM OR Canadian crude vessel delays exceed 25% (AIS-reported >48h wait rate). Current stance: bearish. Revise to neutral if WTI trades <$100.30 for 48 hours. Actionable: ① Close USGC fuel oil pricing window — ¥5,434/t is at 3-month high; halt new FOB contracting; ② Lock USD/CAD for Canadian heavy crude re-export — 1.3973 is 6-month low; fix Dec load date; ③ Delay Mexico asphalt vessel booking to third week of Nov — low refinery utilization delays spot release; ④ Wait for: US refinery input ≤ 17,200 kb/d OR Yucatán Strait AIS traffic <25 vessels/day for 5 days straight.
