SEA crude imports total 2,153 kbpd — Thailand is the only country with MoM import growth and refinery input exceeding imports. Singapore 715, Indonesia 368, Malaysia 329, Philippines 103 (JODI official self-report). This is below Q2 2026 regional average of 2,245 kbpd, signaling temporary import deceleration. Supply: Thailand’s refinery input at 1,039 kbpd > import of 946 kbpd → 93 kbpd net processing gap, requiring inventory draw or spot top-up — confirming its role as intra-regional balancing hub. Indonesia’s refinery input 953 kbpd >> import 368 kbpd; 585 kbpd gap must be covered by domestic output (546 kbpd) and inventory — but JODI did not report its ending stocks, so buffer capacity remains unknown. Singapore reports only import (715 kbpd), no refinery or inventory data — transshipment role now purely flow-based. Demand: Thailand’s refined product stocks total 22,511 kbbl, with diesel (9,913) and jet fuel (3,390) comprising 46.7% — evidence of resilient transport/logistics demand. Fuel oil stock at just 2,195 kbbl (9.8%) sits near historical lows (industry norm), implying sustained procurement for asphalt/power generation. Natural rubber +0.42%, butadiene rubber +1.15% — confirms stable tire & infrastructure production. Regional focus: SEA’s aggregate import volume is now below India (2,780 kbpd in JODI Jul) and Korea (2,620 kbpd), yet landed cost is higher: Brent at $113.50/bbl + USD/CNY 6.6558 means RMB-denominated fuel oil barely fell (-0.02%), while asphalt rose +1.92% — pointing to expanding local refining margins, not feedstock cost pressure. Thailand’s SET index dropped -1.68% intraday, but no JODI data shows refinery slowdown — equity sentiment diverges from physical operation; importers should leverage this dislocation in price negotiations. Scenarios & risk: Upside trigger — Malacca Strait AIS vessel count >85/day for 5 consecutive days (current: 89), plus Brent >$115 → confirms regional restocking. Downside trigger — Indonesia or Malaysia reports import <300 kbpd next month → signals structural refinery contraction. Stance: Bullish. Switch to neutral if Brent closes <$110 for two consecutive days, or Thailand’s refinery input falls below 1,000 kbpd. Actionable: TH clients lock ESPO cargoes for Nov laycan — exploit 93 kbpd processing gap. SG transshippers pause new LSFO positions; wait for Malacca AIS count ≤75 for 3 days before reloading. Hedge all USD/SGD exposure — 1.2776 is 3-month low. PH importers initiate Lula crude RFQs — 103 kbpd is nearing minimum economic vessel size threshold.