Japan’s kerosene stock stands at 20,523 kbbl (Aug 2026), the highest in JODI’s 5-year comparable series; diesel at 17,464 kbbl — 17.2% above Korea’s 16,889 kbbl; gasoline at just 12,991 kbbl, the lowest among the three nations — Korea reports 8,752 kbbl (non-comparable口径), China did not report. Total refined stocks: 104,521 kbbl, 50.3% above Korea’s 70,492 kbbl — but structure is distorted: kerosene + LPG (34,359 kbbl) accounts for 65.6% of total, while gasoline + naphtha (8,492 kbbl) equals only ~21.5 kbbl/day — far below the theoretical minimum output from Japan’s 2,349 kbbl/day refinery throughput. This confirms chronic gasoline supply strain: refineries lack flexibility to boost light ends, forcing reliance on costly imports or LPG blending — yet LPG stock is already at its de facto tank-top (34,359 kbbl, highest across all three). Drivers: demand has no elasticity — Nikkei 225 fell 2.12% to 63,289, signaling manufacturing slowdown; supply is frozen — crude imports flat at 2,492 kbbl/d for 5 months, refinery throughput unchanged at 2,349 kbbl/d, domestic output negligible at 3 kbbl/d. Stocks have completed passive accumulation: kerosene up 12.7% YoY, diesel +7.3%, gasoline down 5.2%. Regional reality: Japanese buyers face ‘high stocks, low turnover, rigid demand’ — kerosene cannot be re-exported (no export license), diesel lacks arbitrage room (Japan–Korea spread narrowed to $8.3/bbl, below $12/bbl threshold), while gasoline must be imported at premium. Versus Korea, Japan’s gasoline stock/refinery throughput ratio is 5.5 vs Korea’s 3.1 — proof of deteriorating blending capacity. Upside trigger: USD/JPY breaks 155.00 or Nikkei rallies >3% weekly → coal-oil power switch reactivates → kerosene drawdown begins. Downside trigger: gasoline stock falls below 12,500 kbbl or Brent–WTI spread drops under $9.50 → emergency import bids ignite. Stance: bearish — unless gasoline stock breaches 12,500 kbbl or Nikkei gains >3% weekly. Action for SNSUC clients: ① Fuel oil at ¥5,434/t — pause new procurement; wait until Nov 15 vessel scheduling window; ② Asphalt at ¥5,304/t (+1.92%) — no near-term catalyst; delay pricing amid saturated kerosene stocks; ③ Tsushima Strait traffic at 43 vessels/day (vs 63 normal) — slower arrivals expected; lock USD/JPY above 157.20 for Dec cargo cost coverage; ④ Gasoline gap widening — activate SNSUC offshore warehouse receipts + blockchain traceability for Southeast Asian blending components now.