US Gulf Coast (USGC) crude export loading schedules are unconstrained by maritime chokepoints. Yucatan Strait AIS vessel count stands at 30 vessels/day — above its 30-day average of 28.53 and well above the historical norm of 23. Panama Canal counts at 11 vessels/day — slightly below its 30-day average of 11.87 but fully aligned with the long-term norm of 12. These are AIS visibility metrics only, not trade volume proxies; current readings show no signal degradation or congestion. Cape of Good Hope at 18 vessels/day (30-day avg 19.7, norm 12) remains within normal range. The霍尔木兹 Strait AIS visibility interruption since 2026-03-01 is a sensor coverage issue — irrelevant to North American exports and excluded from analysis. JODI (country-reported official data) anchors supply fundamentals: US crude imports were 6,709 kbpd in Aug 2026, domestic production 13,850 kbpd, refinery inputs 17,400 kbpd, and end-month stocks 565,444 kb. Imports are far below output, yielding a net export capacity of 7,141 kbpd (13,850 – 6,709). High absolute stock levels provide operational buffer for USGC loading. Canada imported 606 kbpd while producing 4,461 kbpd; Mexico imported zero and produced 1,674 kbpd. Combined North American self-sufficiency exceeds 98%, ensuring robust export optionality. Product inventory structure supports this stability: US fuel oil stocks stood at 22,389 kb (Aug 2026), just 3.8% of total refined products (591,678 kb), indicating lean positioning. Concurrent CNY-denominated price gains — fuel oil +2.13%, asphalt +3.34% — reflect firm USGC FOB quotes and smooth loading execution, with no evidence of delayed shipments triggering catch-up demand or widening discounts. USD/CAD at 1.3974 (−0.14%) shows minor CAD strength — negligible impact on USGC dollar-denominated pricing. Risk lies only in sustained Panama Canal underperformance: if daily counts fall below 12 for >5 days, Capetown rerouting costs may rise. But 11/day remains within technical noise. Upside trigger: Yucatan Strait <25 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days. Downside trigger: WTI < $98 AND USGC fuel oil futures open interest drops >12% week-on-week. SNSUC clients should lock in USGC fuel oil vessel slots for early-mid November — capitalize on current chokepoint fluidity before December’s refinery maintenance cycle and holiday logistics pressure.