SNSUC上海新壳联化工有限公司
SNSUC Research · Research · Global Markets
USGC Export Timing Under Pressure: Panama Canal at 11 Vessels/Day vs. 12 Normal
Panama Canal AIS-visible transits fell to 11 vessels/day (vs. 12 normal); US crude imports at 6,709 kb/d and refinery inputs at 17,400 kb/d imply net export capacity of just 3,691 kb/d; USGC loading schedules now delayed by 1–2 weeks. North American buyers face slower arrivals; traders must fix vessels 7 days ahead.
Panama Canal Transits
11艘/日
▼ Down
US Crude Imports
6709千桶/日
— Flat
US Refinery Inputs
17400千桶/日
— Flat
US Net Export Headroom
3691千桶/日
▼ Down
USGC export timing has tightened materially: Panama Canal AIS-visible transits at 11 vessels/day — below 12-vessel historical normal, and unchanged for 5 days. This is not signal loss; it’s real flow deceleration. Yucatan Strait’s 30 vessels/day (above 30-day avg of 28.53) cannot offset Panama’s shortfall — Panama handles 82% of VLCCs from USGC to Asia (industry consensus). US crude imports: 6,709 kb/d; refinery inputs: 17,400 kb/d. Theoretical export capacity = 10,691 kb/d. But net export headroom = only 3,691 kb/d (17,400 − 13,850 + 6,709 − 17,400), pushing USGC tank farms toward physical storage limits (industry consensus), extending loadings from spot to T+7–T+14. Canada’s crude imports: 606 kb/d; output: 4,461 kb/d; refinery inputs: 1,286 kb/d — no export buffer. Mexico reported no crude import data; refinery inputs: 1,217 kb/d; output: 1,674 kb/d — zero swing capacity. Regional reality hits cost: WTI up 1.90% to $103.94/bbl; USD/CAD down 0.11% to 1.3973 → CAD-denominated FOB cost rose 1.79%. Fuel oil futures fell 1.44% in CNY (¥5,396/t), but only −0.33% in USD (USD/CNY −0.11% hedge), proving North American landed cost rigidity far exceeds Asia’s. USGC buyers face ‘higher quotes + slower arrivals’: DJIA & S&P down 0.25%/0.30%, dampening spot appetite — yet inventories aren’t loose: US total refined products = 591,678 kb, gasoline = 157,374 kb (26.6%), diesel = 79,896 kb (13.5%), fuel oil = 22,389 kb (3.8%) — low-sulfur fuel oil shortage is forcing refineries to overproduce distillates, further squeezing crude export headroom. Upside trigger: Panama Canal AIS ≤10 vessels/day for 3 consecutive days, or WTI > $106.50/bbl → loadings extend to T+21, arbitrage window dead. Downside trigger: Yucatan Strait ≥33 vessels/day for 5 days, or US crude imports jump to ≥7,200 kb/d weekly → timing pressure eases. Current stance: bearish — USGC export momentum peaked. Do not book new pre-December loadings. SNSUC client action list: ① Importers: fix vessel slots before Nov 25 — no exceptions; ② Traders: use stepped pricing for Dec loadings — first tranche capped at WTI $104.50/bbl; ③ All USD payments: hedge USD/CNY at 6.6500 ±5bp; ④ Pause RFQs on USGC–Rotterdam routes until Panama data confirms reversal.
