The most interesting move in FX today was not the dollar but the euro. EUR/CNY fell to 7.4448, down 1.37%, and EUR/USD to 1.1166, down 0.56% — the euro weakened against both the yuan and the dollar.
For a book like SNSUC's that runs Asian transit, a weak euro rewrites two accounts. One is energy cost versus European refiners: European plants buy crude in dollars, so a weaker euro lightens their effective dollar crude bill and their relative competitiveness is recovering. The other is settlement with European customers: yuan-denominated cargo we sell becomes 'pricier' in euro terms — the same euro payment converts to fewer RMB — so we have to build the FX risk into the quote.
Asia tells the opposite story. The yuan firmed (USD/CNY 6.669) and the won firmed too (USD/KRW 1323.75), with only the yen slightly weaker (USD/JPY 157.59). Asian buyers paying dollars for crude saw their landed cost drop a notch in local currency, retaking the price edge over Europe.
Lay the seven transit grades on top: light-sweet ESPO, Dubai and Oman get cheaper landed prices for Asian buyers on a firmer local currency, sharpening the fight for them against Europe. Grades that live on freight and differential — Urals, Bonny Light — hinge instead on European refiners' restocking appetite under a weak euro.