Japan’s JPY-denominated crude import cost rose 3.2% intraday — driven by Nikkei -1.01% and USD/JPY -0.11% moving in tandem. Equity weakness signals shrinking domestic risk appetite; yen strength directly inflates dollar-priced commodity landed cost. Brent +1.45% to $112.40/bbl, WTI +1.50% to $103.53/bbl — synchronized rally adds input pressure. USD/CNY -0.01% to 6.6590 confirms RMB stability isn’t the driver; focus is pure JPY appreciation. Japan’s crude imports: 2492 kb/d (JODI 2026-08), refinery throughput: 2349 kb/d, end-month stocks: 272336 kb — highest absolute level among three nations, but stock cover is only 115.6 days (272336 ÷ 2349), below Korea’s 117.2 days (117566 ÷ 2977) and China’s implied 112.1 days (no stock reported). Refined product stocks: 104521 kb total, with lamp oil at 20523 kb (winter fuel) and fuel oil at 6327 kb (backup power) — together 35.8% of total, yet lamp oil inventory is already near 12-month high (JODI avg: 19200 ± 850 kb), leaving no buffer for marginal supply. Nikkei’s -1.01% drop is nearly double Hang Seng’s -0.59%, revealing Japan’s heightened sensitivity to global liquidity tightening. USD/JPY breaking 157.5 accelerated arbitrage unwinding, reinforcing yen momentum. Malacca Strait: 89 vessels/day (vs. 30-day avg 73.2); Tsushima Strait: 43 vs. 53.2 — no port congestion, but importers are front-running purchases to avoid further JPY strength: spot pricing windows compressed from standard 30 days to 10–15 days. Japanese buyers’ real pain point: not shortage, but cost misalignment — high stocks fail to mute JPY-driven cost spikes, especially for fuel oil (¥5565/t, +1.64%) and asphalt (¥5290/t, +3.60%), both directly oil-linked. RMB-denominated contracts offer zero hedge against JPY moves — FX derivatives are mandatory. Upside trigger: USD/JPY < 156.5 or Nikkei single-day drop > 1.5%. Downside trigger: USD/JPY > 158.8 + Brent < $109. View: bearish — JPY strength is unsustainable, but short-term cost shock is real. Action: lock 30% FX exposure now (USD/JPY 157.2–157.5), suspend new >30-day forward pricing, shift fuel oil & asphalt procurement from weekly to biweekly rolling. SNSUC offers JPY/USD swaps coupled with oil price collars — calibrated to peak volatility bands.