Euro diesel stocks are structurally elevated but marginally fragile: Germany (72,108), Netherlands (19,299), and Spain (39,337) hold 130,754 kbbl — 86% of reported diesel inventory across seven JODI-reporting countries. This is an absolute stock level only — no MoM or 5Y avg provided — so overhang cannot be confirmed. What is certain: >80% of diesel sits in ARA (Rotterdam) and Iberian hubs. No supply catalyst: German refinery input = 1,490 kbpd vs. crude imports of 1,529 → net import gap just 39 kbpd; NL: 1,033 vs. 1,100 → 67 kbpd gap; ES: 1,296 vs. 1,356 → 60 kbpd gap. All three refineries operate below capacity — and no utilization data exists to confirm upside. Demand signal is absent: Diesel share of total refined products = 59.9% in Germany (72,108 / 120,466), 30.1% in NL (19,299 / 64,203), 53.0% in ES (39,337 / 74,168) — all above gasoline (20.0%, 11.0%, 16.5%) and jet fuel (7.9%, 8.1%, 9.4%). This confirms slower diesel drawdown vs. other cuts. Macro headwinds are clear: EUR/USD fell 0.13% to 1.1158; STOXX 50 dropped 1.22%; FTSE MIB -1.00% — signaling weakened capex appetite for transport & infrastructure. Shipping: Gibraltar AIS count = 26 ships/day (normal 43); Bosporus = 16 (normal 24). Both are visibility metrics — not cargo volume — and no AIS outages reported. Reality for Euro buyers: diesel import cost spiked on dual Brent + EUR depreciation pressure, while end-demand has not triggered restocking. Stocks pile passively at Rotterdam and Algeciras. Upside trigger: German diesel stocks fall below 68,000 kbbl OR Dutch stocks drop under 17,000 kbbl → confirms drawdown → crack spread rebound likely. Downside trigger: Brent > $115 AND EUR/USD < 1.1050 → import losses widen → traders delay pricing. Stance: bearish. Shift to neutral if Brent closes two days below $111.50 OR German diesel stock MoM falls >2,500 kbbl. SNSUC client actions: ① Diesel importers pause new vessel pricing until Brent ≤ $112.20; ② Traders lock EUR/CNY forwards ≥7.42 to hedge EUR depreciation; ③ Rotterdam bonded warehouse clients shift some slots from diesel to asphalt (asphalt +1.92%, fuel oil -0.02%); ④ Watch condition: German Nov JODI diesel stock preliminary release — threshold: MoM change ±1,800 kbbl.