Splitting SNSUC's thirteen commodity categories reveals two distinct curves today. On the heavy-oil side, fuel oil at 5434 yuan per tonne is essentially flat at minus 0.02, bitumen at 5304 yuan is up 1.92, and butadiene rubber at 17155 yuan is up 1.15. On the rubber side, natural rubber at 19260 yuan gained 0.42. They all show gains on the screen, yet the drivers differ: bitumen tracks winter stockpiling for infrastructure and coker margins, fuel oil is held by bonded bunker demand, while the rubber chain is pulled by southern Thailand rainfall and tire-plant restocking.

For the desk, this same-screen divergence is exactly why a single moving average across all grades is a mistake. We run a separate crack-spread monitor for the heavy-oil chain and another for rubber. Today fuel oil and bitumen did not move in step, signalling refinery run rates have not yet reached the product end — do not chase bitumen higher in the short term. On rubber, the NR-BR gap has narrowed to 2105 yuan, so butadiene rubber's substitution value in blends is recovering and tire-plant purchase orders can tilt toward BR.