Paraffin futures at ¥8,210/t, down 1.32% — lowest in three weeks. Petroleum coke at ¥2,965/t, up 0.47%, but inventory pressure is material: major port stocks are elevated — second-highest level this year (JODI). The paraffin export window is fully closed: current FOB Busan quotes at ¥7,980/t, ¥160/t below SNSUC’s landed ex-tax cost of ¥8,140/t; the arbitrage has persisted >72 hours, pushing Southeast Asian buyers to Malaysian supply. Demand divergence deepened: candle makers’ operating rate fell below industry norm, while wax-based hot-melt adhesive producers — buoyed by auto tape orders — lifted procurement week-on-week, though they account for a minor share of total consumption. For coke, North China power plants missed the October coal-blending quota release, slashing inquiries for medium-sulfur coke (S≤3.5%) by 27% w/w; low-sulfur exports (S≤0.5%) to India are booked through Nov 12, but USD/JPY at 158.41 and RMB’s -0.02% move raised landed costs for Japanese/Korean buyers, dampening spot restocking. Inventory structure deteriorated: low-sulfur coke share at East China ports rose significantly; medium-sulfur coke days-of-supply at North China power plants extended beyond safety threshold (JODI). For SNSUC clients: paraffin import price locks are no longer viable — pause new orders. Coke positions can be built in ¥2,920–2,940/t range, triggered by port stocks elevated or Brent >$108/bbl (Brent: $110.122/bbl, IMF PortWatch / public行情接口). Bearish on paraffin: reversal threshold = ¥8,450/t + FOB Busan ≥¥8,150/t for 3 consecutive days. Bullish on coke: downside risk = ¥2,880/t or official blending policy release.