On 3 October the fuel-oil front month held at 4,434 yuan a tonne, up just 0.36%, while bitumen fell 3.50% to 5,013. The gap between the two narrowed to 579 yuan as residue flows reallocated between bonded bunkering and road demand.

Fuel oil's resilience tracks two straight weeks of heavier bonded bunker lifts at Zhoushan and Ningbo; light-end blending demand pulled residue away from the road side. Bitumen, by contrast, faces peaking northern construction and an unbroken southwest rainy season, so road tenders slipped month on month and refinery stocks rebuilt.

For resellers, firmer fuel oil lifts bonded-bunker feedstock cost, but resale margin comes from the arrival spread, not the outright price, so the hit is limited. Weaker bitumen frees more heavy-feed processing room for independents, which in turn caps fuel-oil blending cost.

Operationally, tilt residue allocation 5–8 points toward bonded bunkering this week and smooth the road side with inventory, then wait for the late-October northern shutdown to set bitumen's basis direction.