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East China Tank Utilization Tight, Demurrage Sharply Higher
Brent above $110 and slower CNY depreciation triggered clustered arrivals; East China port tank utilization tight; fuel oil futures fell but demurrage rose sharply; slow asphalt drawdown collapsed inter-regional arbitrage — Shanghai-Ningbo freight premium hit ¥185/ton.
East China Tank Utilization
92%
▲ Up
VLCC Demurrage
38500USD/day
▲ Up
Shanghai-Ningbo Asphalt Freight Premium
185CNY/ton
▲ Up
Fuel Oil Futures
4775CNY/ton
▼ Down
East China main ports (Ningbo, Zhoushan, Yangshan) crude and heavy oil tank utilization is偏紧, the second-highest level this year — only below the March 2026 peak (industry benchmark). Though fuel oil futures fell 0.44% to ¥4,775/ton, physical intake is bottlenecked: Sinopec’s Zhoushan bonded depot has limited vacant capacity left; heavy oil tank turnover at Ningbo Zhenhai Port is prolonged — up from September’s average. Demurrage spiked accordingly: VLCC demurrage at Ningbo is elevated — Q4’s highest. This mirrors Brent’s +1.06% jump: high prices tightened vessel availability, while Red Sea rerouting delays concentrated arrivals into a 72-hour window. Asphalt at ¥4,485/ton (-0.53%) is cheaper, yet East China refinery runs are subdued (industry benchmark), with weekly drawdown slowing — less than half the historical average. Inter-regional arbitrage has collapsed: Shanghai-Ningbo waterborne freight costs ¥320/ton, but local asphalt trades only ¥135/ton below Ningbo — a ¥185/ton negative spread. No cross-regional movement has occurred for five consecutive trading days. For SNSUC’s transshipment clients, this imposes two hard costs: higher demurrage clauses at loading ports, and either ¥185/ton overland premiums or storage penalty fees if using Ningbo as a secondary hub. With USD/CNY at 6.6760 (-0.02%), the RMB hedge against demurrage is eroded: $38,500/day now equals ¥257,000 — up from September’s average. We advise SNSUC clients to lock demurrage caps for early-November laycan and adopt ‘lift-on-arrival’ terms for asphalt orders. Clear view: bearish regional logistics economics. Reversal triggers: East China tank utilization easing significantly OR weekly asphalt drawdown accelerating meaningfully.