Fuel oil futures plunged 4.10% to ¥4,309/t — the steepest single-day drop since early September — without commensurate declines in asphalt (-0.31%) or rubber (-0.13% to -1.01%), confirming a demand-led, not cost-driven, correction. Though Brent (-3.00%) and WTI (-2.18%) both fell, fuel oil’s underperformance versus crude signals weakening end-user pull. Critical evidence: Shanghai tankage pressure did not worsen — demurrage remains flat at ¥3,650/day — ruling out logistics-driven inventory buildup. Price acceleration downward reflects slower bunkering station procurement. Singapore bunker sales data shows average daily volume at 372 kt in first two weeks of September, down 5.3% MoM (industry benchmark); LSFO share dropped to 68.1%, lowest this year, as carriers actively ration high-cost fuel. Inventory cycle has shifted from active restocking to passive accumulation: ARA stocks hit 11.2 Mt (industry benchmark), 7.2% above 5-year avg; Fujairah inventories rose 1.8% w/w for third consecutive week. Seasonal off-season arrived 10–12 days early — typically starting around Sep 25, but now evident by Sep 17 — driven by fading Red Sea rerouting benefits and overcapacity on Asia-Europe routes (container vessel average speed fell to 12.3 knots, Clarkson data, industry benchmark). For SNSUC clients: import margin has narrowed sharply — landed all-in cost (based on ¥4,309 spot, $102.66 Brent, 6.7067 FX, 8% VAT + 2% tariff) implies ¥210/t loss for late-September shipments, vs. ¥85/t avg in August. We advise bunker traders to pause new FOB orders; importers should scale in at ¥4,250–4,280/t. Stop-loss set at ¥4,330. Bearish view holds unless Singapore LSFO sales rebound above 400 kt for two consecutive weeks OR Brent breaks $106.