On October 10, bitumen settled at 5,259 yuan per tonne, down 1.13% on the day, while fuel oil closed at 4,529 yuan per tonne, up 2.0%. Both legs are cut from the same vacuum residue, yet they moved in opposite directions.

The bitumen softness is a direct read on the road-construction off-season. Cooling weather in the north halts paving, social inventories draw slowly, and the futures-spot basis stays compressed. Fuel oil strength comes from pre-stocking of bonded bunker grades — international transshipment vessels fill low-sulfur warrants before year-end, and premiums in Zhoushan and Singapore rise together.

For a trader that watches both supply and re-export flow, the signal is concrete: independent refiners push more residue into coking and bunker blending, which squeezes the supply elasticity of road bitumen. The fuel-oil-to-Brent crack widened to a daily gain near 2.0%, but the margin lands on the bonded side, not on highways.

Operating takeaway: the grade coefficient in the listed-price formula must be recalibrated for "fuel oil strong, bitumen weak." Re-export arrival cost is anchored to Brent at 104.595 dollars per barrel, and a stronger yuan at 6.6929 trims the duty-paid cost by a notch.