This watch is based on SOMO official selling prices (OSP) and publicly available transit risk assessments, for trading and hedging decisions.
Data as of 2026-10-13.1. OSP marker: On 8 Oct SOMO set November Basrah Medium OSP to Asia at a discount to the Oman/Dubai average, and Heavy at a deeper discount, a sharp deepening from October's levels. Europe Medium was set at a discount to dated Brent, Americas at a premium to Sour. The cut follows Saudi slashing November Arab Light to Asia to a steeper discount versus October, signalling Middle East producers defending market share. For Basrah Medium: OSP + spot rebate ≈ FOB net discount to Oman/Dubai; adding current VLCC freight and war risk, delivered discount is deeper. Heavy is more attractive due to a wider combined discount.
3. Hormuz and practical notes
Iran publicly confirmed on 12 Oct that Hormuz security "will not return to normal", citing incidents involving commercial vessels; US CENTCOM reported enforcement action against a vessel breaching the blockade.
London underwriters repriced Additional War Risk Premiums (AWRP) significantly above baseline, with a single VLCC voyage requiring substantially higher cover;霍尔木兹海峡通行数据不可用 (IMF PortWatch). VLCC day rates remain elevated. (2) War risk and freight stay extreme; term contracts and STS Fujairah offshore delivery help spread single-voyage risk. (3) Gulf exports show signs of resilience but transit remains volatile — stagger procurement and keep alternative corridors open.
