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Iraq's SOMO set the November Asia OSP on Oct 8: Basrah Medium at -2.80/bbl to Oman/Dubai (flat 0.00 in Oct), Heavy widened to -5.80/bbl (Oct -3.30), following Saudi's November Arab Light to Asia at -5.00 in a shared market-share defense.

On the spot side, recent loading cargoes show FOB dark discounts deeper than the Aug–Sep band, reflecting Iraq's extra incentive amid geopolitics and fleet constraints.

Loading-premium mechanism: non-Hormuz loadings (1–10th ≥0.20, 11–30th ≥3.00 USD/bbl) plus offshore STS transfer lift delivered cost further.

Against the Oman/Dubai average, Basrah Medium FOB nets roughly at a deep discount (OSP -2.80 plus spot discount); Heavy nets at a deeper discount (OSP -5.80 plus spot discount).

Adding freight, war risk and STS premium, delivered ICE Brent parity sits at a premium — still the cheapest Middle East sour tier, yet absolute delivered cost is lifted by high Brent and war risk.

On Mon Oct 27, Brent pulled back from a six-month high (Dec contract settled at 110.122 USD/bbl, -1.36%), WTI at 101.51 USD/bbl (-1.24%); senior officials from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan met in Tehran to revive security talks, easing escalation fears.

Yet Hormuz transit remains constrained with AIS visibility interrupted since Mar 2026; VLCC day rates are elevated and war-risk premium is substantial.

Lock pricing with tight control on delivered cost and war-risk exposure; watch the Tuesday Israel election and post-US-midterm dynamics.

Sources: SOMO / IMF PortWatch / public market data interfaces.