I. Three-Layer Pricing Read

1. OSP (official): On Sept 13 SOMO confirmed the October Asia OSP unchanged — Basrah Medium at parity (0.00 $/b) and Basrah Heavy at a $3.30/b discount to the Oman/Dubai average, each tightening $4.00 from September (-4.00 / -7.30) and holding steady after two months of upward revision (Reuters/SquawkNews).

2. Spot term discount: A SOMO document obtained by Bloomberg (Sept 29) shows October cargoes (loading Oct 1–31) carried term cuts of Medium -$34.50/b and Heavy -$37.00/b versus destination benchmarks (Oman/Dubai for Asia, Dated Brent for Europe, Argus SCI for the Americas). This is materially deeper than the sub-$30 range in Aug–Sep, reflecting Iraq's geographic disadvantage further from Hormuz and its lack of a sizable fleet — steep discounts are needed to keep barrels moving (GhanaUpstream/Bloomberg).

3. Load premium +30% mechanism: The September tender load-premium rule persists — ≥$0.20/b for 1–10 day loading, ≥$3.00/b for 11–30 day loading; offshore STS (Gulf of Oman) transshipment adds +30%. In practice for October, buyers lock Sept–Nov cargoes via Oman STS to avoid direct strait transit.

II. Net To-Hand Differential

On a delivered-Asia basis, October Basrah Medium net ≈ Oman/Dubai average minus $34.50/b (parity OSP plus term cut); Heavy ≈ minus $37.00/b. Versus the Aug–Sep range (Medium -29~-34, Heavy -27.8~-29.8), the net discount shifted lower by roughly $3–7, the deepest seller concession since the conflict began (Source: SOMO/Reuters/Argus-sourced).

III. Macro & Geopolitics (as of Oct 7)

Prices: ICE Brent settled around $76.01/b (-2.54% on the day) on Oct 7, WTI around $71.78/b (-2.37%); after a two-session spike on the US–Iran ceasefire breakdown, both still posted roughly +4.7% on the week (InstaForex/IC.com/Hellenic).

Hormuz: On Oct 7 a tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile and caught fire inside the strait (PortNews); Trump declared the ceasefire 'effectively over' and threatened to reimpose a blockade on Iranian ports and restore crude sanctions. ING estimates Middle East seaborne crude flows at about 14 mb/d, down ~30% from ~20 mb/d pre-conflict; Lloyd's JWC still lists the Arabian Gulf as a war zone with war-risk premiums elevated.

Chinese refiners: Teapots and state refiners keep returning to Middle East sour spot tenders, securing Sept–Nov cargoes via Oman STS; onshore inventories ~1,172 Mbbl (~88 days) provide ample buffer (urgent.news/Hellenic).

Note: OSP is the official monthly marker; the term cut is the actual October cargo concession per Bloomberg (Sept 29). Their combination reflects the net to-hand differential. Data updating; subject to latest official releases.