Thailand’s refinery input (1039 kb/d) exceeds its crude import (946 kb/d) by 93 kb/d — a gap unbridgeable by domestic output (176 kb/d), forcing drawdown of ending stocks (24,367 kb, ~23 days cover) or re-export inflows. This explains Thailand’s high refined product stocks (22,511 kb total, including 2,195 kb fuel oil) and why asphalt (+1.92% to ¥5,304/t) outperformed fuel oil (flat at ¥5,434/t): rigid refinery runs lift demand for mid-distillates, and asphalt — as a high-margin co-product — is prioritized. Singapore’s import stands at 715 kb/d, with no refinery input or production reported (JODI non-submission), confirming its role as a lean, fast-turnaround bunkering hub — not a refining node. Indonesia imports 368 kb/d but runs refineries at 953 kb/d: a 585 kb/d deficit far exceeding its domestic output (546 kb/d). That gap implies either hidden stock draw or third-party supply — but JODI did not report its ending stocks, so buffer capacity remains unverifiable. Malaysia (329 kb/d) and Philippines (103 kb/d) report imports only — pure consumption profiles. Malacca Strait AIS shows 89 vessels/day (vs. 76 historical norm); Sunda, Lombok, and Taiwan Straits all normal. Hormuz AIS visibility remains interrupted — a signal-layer risk, not trade evidence. SEA equities sold off: SET -1.68%, JKSE -0.80%. But USD/SGD (-0.16%) and USD/THB (0.00%) held steady — minimal FX pressure on import costs. Brent surged +2.44% to $113.50; yet fuel oil flat while asphalt rallied — proof regional refiners are passing through higher crude costs selectively into high-margin products. For SNSUC clients: watch Thailand’s import rhythm — sustained >93 kb/d net deficit widens inter-regional asphalt/fuel oil spreads. Singapore’s 715 kb/d import cap leaves no near-term upside for re-export volume. Bullish. Reverse view if Brent breaches $115 AND Thailand’s import falls below 920 kb/d for two consecutive months. Action: scale into asphalt futures between ¥5,304–5,350/t; lock FX above 6.66 on USD/CNY (current 6.6558 is 3-day low); prioritize vessel slots matching Thailand’s 7–10 day port call window; wait if Malacca AIS drops below 70 vessels/day for 5 days straight OR Thailand’s total refined stocks fall below 21,000 kb.