Europe’s crude imports have split into three tiers: Tier 1 — Germany (1,529), Italy (1,225), Netherlands (1,100) kbd — combined intake 3.854M bpd, 68% of the seven-nation total; refinery throughput 3,902 kbd vs domestic output 109 kbd → 97.2% net import dependency. Tier 2 — Spain (1,356), France (1,013) kbd — throughput 2,287 kbd, output 83 kbd → 96.4% dependency. Tier 3 — UK (666), Norway (44), Turkey (676) kbd — Norway is a net exporter (output 1,895 > throughput 218); its 44 kbd import is logistical top-up, not systemic reliance. Germany imports 34.5x more than Norway — but refinery throughput differs only 6.9x (1,490 vs 218), proving Norway’s self-sufficiency vs Germany’s cross-regional integration. Germany’s 131,776 kb crude stock = 87 days of net import cover; Netherlands’ 33,357 kb = 30 days; Spain’s 34,108 kb = 25 days — buffer capacity is sharply tiered. Supply: Bab-el-Mandeb AIS visibility at 13 vessels/day (30-day avg 9.43, historical norm 17); Bosporus at 16 (avg 14.03, norm 24). These are AIS signal gaps — not trade disruptions. Gibraltar (26 vs norm 43) and Cape of Good Hope (18 vs norm 12) confirm robust alternative routes. Demand: Germany’s diesel stock (72,108 kb), Spain’s (39,337 kb), Netherlands’ (19,299 kb) = 42% of regional refined stocks — yet diesel makes up >55% of that, signaling transport & industrial demand resilience. EUR/USD rose to 1.1206 (+0.30%), cutting euro-denominated procurement cost by 0.3%, but Brent’s +0.44% rise offsets ~70% — net import cost up 0.15%. European buyers face structural heavy-crude shortage and regional blending bottlenecks. Germany has zero domestic heavy crude production — reliant on Urals/Basrah Light. Italy’s 1,379 kbd throughput exceeds its 1,225 kbd import — filled by stock drawdown and re-export. Netherlands imports 1,100 kbd but holds 13,003 kb fuel oil (20.3% of its refined stock), confirming its ARA hub role in heavy-oil redistribution. That explains why asphalt +1.61% while fuel oil -0.05%: heavy-oil cracking margins tilt westward — blending arbitrage window is open. Upside trigger: Suez Canal AIS visibility ≤12 vessels/day for 5 consecutive days, or Germany’s crude stock falls below 125,000 kb → delayed heavy arrivals → Brent-Dubai spread widens beyond $12. Downside trigger: Norway’s output revised below 1,800 kbd, or Italy’s throughput drops below 1,200 kbd → heavy-oil surplus in NW Europe. Stance: Bullish. Flip to neutral if Brent breaks below $108.50/bbl, or Germany’s monthly import slips below 1,450 kbd for two months straight. For SNSUC clients: ① Price Urals/Lula re-exports to Germany within $111.00–$111.50/bbl now; ② Schedule fuel oil–asphalt arbitrage voyages to Netherlands before Nov 15; ③ Pause Bonny Light purchases for UK until Brent retests $109.80; ④ Lock all EUR settlements before EUR/USD hits 1.125.