Run through SNSUC's 13 tracked categories and the petrochemical complex is broadly up, but far from uniform. At the crude end Brent closed at 112.10 (+3.17%) and WTI at 103.49 (+4.04%); among downstream products fuel oil at 5,349 RMB/t led with a 6.38% single-day gain, bitumen at 4,766 followed at +3.61%, while natural rubber at 19,700 managed only +0.43% and BR 16,170 rose 1.51%.

This tiering is not noise. Fuel oil's lead comes from bonded bunker-fuel restocking - Zhoushan is competing for international transshipment vessels and pulling spot tight; bitumen followed but is capped by the road-construction off-season, gaining only half of fuel oil's move. Rubber barely moved because natural rubber lacks a fresh supply narrative, and BR's gain is mostly butadiene-maintenance support.

For the arbitrage desk, the point today is not 'up or down' but 'who moved more.' The fuel oil-bitumen (FO-BIT) spread stretched to 583 RMB/t, and short-end money is clearly betting on bunker restocking continuing rather than on a broad demand recovery.