Today the heavy-oil chain and the rubber chain moved in opposite directions. Fuel oil printed ¥4,815/t, down 2.29%; bitumen at ¥4,546/t, up 1.75%; natural rubber at ¥19,685/t, off 0.63%; and butadiene rubber at ¥15,690/t, essentially flat. During the refinery maintenance season, the expected tightening of fuel oil supply did not materialize, and the contract gave back gains, while bitumen rose on its own on infrastructure-start support.

On the rubber side, concentrated feedstock arrivals and hand-to-mouth buying from tire makers left both contracts hugging the floor with no trend. Hedgers should track the two chains separately: crack spreads for the heavy-oil leg, tire-plant operating rates and port inventories for rubber. Blending both into one average hides the separate drivers and leads to wrong hedge ratios.