China's retail fuel price moves on a 10-working-day crude average. Brent has hovered near $109 this round, and back-solving the current linkage points to a low-hundreds-of-yuan-per-tonne implied hike for gasoline and diesel, with the exact figure set once the pricing window closes.

Keep this separate from the re-export book. Bonded bunker fuel — VLSFO and MGO — runs on the "two ends outside" bonded tax track and carries no excise; domestic gasoline and diesel follow the general-trade chain with excise baked in. When the window moves, it hits the retail station ledger, not the seven-grade re-export landed cost.

For SNSUC, the variables that actually move re-export economics are the lift that high Brent gives the listed price formula and the offset from a stronger yuan — those two are the live inputs. The retail adjustment is a domestic signal; do not book it into re-export cost.

One indirect read: adjustment expectations can briefly lift independents' run rates and product export tempo, which feeds back into residue yield and shows up in the fuel oil versus bitumen spread on the listings page.