The surge in fuel oil futures isn’t sentiment-driven—it’s a price signal of real tankage stress in East China. SNSUC’s logistics dispatch system shows combined utilization across Ningbo–Shanghai–Zhangjiagang bonded hubs is elevated, with HSFO-dedicated tanks occupying a substantial share of total capacity. Average vessel dwell time has lengthened notably over the past three weeks. Industry consensus holds that demurrage enters nonlinear escalation when bonded warehouse turnover falls below typical thresholds and utilization exceeds typical operational limits. Demurrage is now quoted at elevated levels—up significantly vs. September’s prior level—and Zhoushan transshipment terminals impose a penalty for vessels exceeding standard laytime. Asphalt’s move to ¥5,079/t reflects not demand weakness—road construction remains in peak season—but eroded waterborne arbitrage economics: same-port berth priority shifts to fuel oil, delaying asphalt vessel turnarounds and adding implicit freight cost. Concurrent softness in natural rubber and butadiene rubber confirms the bottleneck has spread across the storage chain: Qingdao bonded rubber inventory dwell time has extended, lifting per-ton storage costs for SNSUC clients. The rise in USD/CNY further weakens importers’ ability to hedge tank rental pressure via FX. For SNSUC’s transshipment clients, the optimal play is not competing for tanks—but exploiting the ‘fuel oil–asphalt’ cross-commodity arbitrage window: long fuel oil to lock in tankage premium, short asphalt to capture transport discount. Theoretical spread gain stands at a meaningful level. A Brent break below $104.50 or fuel oil futures above ¥4,720/t would trigger regional logistics circuit-breaker conditions.